The Kayaker's Bet or Wager
Dear Community,
Life is a river. We are on a river in a kayak, and life is flowing by us. Sometimes, the waters are smooth, calm, and peaceful. But inevitably, we hit the rapids and get stuck on rocks. Sometimes these are just minor jams, but other times we can crash on them so hard it feels like we might not survive. We’ve been exploring this in our Way of the River community.
It is incredibly easy to feel defeated when the water gets treacherous and chaotic. But there is a fundamental truth we have to remember: we don't learn to become master kayakers when the river is smooth. We learn how to be master kayakers on the rapids. Adversity challenges us to overcome. It asks something of us that calm waters never do.
To help navigate those terrifying stretches of water, I want to share a mental tool that I rely on when things feel impossibly hard. It is a simple shift in perspective, but it helps me quite a bit and I hope it helps you. I call it The Kayaker’s Wager.
The Kayaker’s Wager: The conscious choice to treat every significant obstacle not merely as random chaos or bad luck, but as a challenge that may be asking you to grow, adapt, or see something differently. Because our community is made up of people from all walks of life, this wager takes on different shapes depending on your personal beliefs:
For the spiritually inclined: It is the choice to trust that even when you cannot understand the rapid, there is a Higher Power present in the river. It is trusting that God, or the universe, has woven hidden lessons into the hardship, using this exact obstacle to shape you, strengthen you, and call something greater out of you.
For the secularly inclined: It is a psychological stance. It is the wager that even if the universe is random, you possess the agency to extract deep meaning, resilience, and wisdom from even the most painful moments.
The Pascal Connection: Why You Have to Place a Bet
You might be thinking, “But Glen, what if my suffering doesn't have a hidden meaning? What if life is just random and this rock I'm stuck on is just cruel bad luck?”
This is exactly why I call it a wager or bet. It is inspired by a famous idea from the 1600s called Pascal’s Wager. Blaise Pascal was a brilliant mathematician who realized that when humans face massive unknowns, we often freeze because we are waiting for absolute proof. Pascal argued that in life, you cannot opt out of betting. You are already in the river. Because you are forced to play the game, you should stop waiting for certainty and instead choose the interpretation that gives you the best chance of living well and moving forward.
When you are stuck on a rock, look at the two bets you can make:
1. You bet the rock is just random, meaningless cruelty. If you make this bet, you may naturally feel defeated, powerless, or emotionally flooded. Your energy drains, and you stay stuck. The absolute best-case scenario is that you simply survive it and eventually get back to baseline.
2. You bet the rock holds an invitation to grow. You make the Kayaker's Wager. You assume there is something here worth paying attention to, even if you cannot yet see it clearly. You stop fighting the current and ask: What is this moment requiring of me? Patience? Courage? Surrender? A new skill? Let’s look at the math of this bet:
What if you’re wrong? What if the universe is just chaotic? By placing the bet and acting as if there were a lesson, you stayed calmer, de-escalated your panic, and figured out how to unstick your kayak. You survived the rapid with more grace. Even when you "lose" this bet, you still win a better quality of life.
But what if you’re right? What if that obstacle really was a turning point? If you're right, you don't just return to zero. You are fundamentally changed by what the rapid demanded from you. You become what we call antifragile - you are no longer only trying to avoid chaos; you are learning how to be strengthened by what once would have broken you. Sometimes this can even become the beginning of what psychologists call post-traumatic growth. Not because pain is "good," but because profound meaning can sometimes be forged from what is hardest.
As you all know, we believe that the problem is the path. You don’t need to have a grand, flawless plan for life. Instead, you just need to solve the next biggest problem in front of you. The key is you’ve got to make the bet - and trust the river - in order to unlock these gains. You don’t get to unlock those gains if you stay only on the familiar, comfortable, normal, predictable path.
What do you think of the Kayaker’s Wager or Bet idea?
We are all navigating this river together, and nobody paddles perfectly. Our job is not to pull others out of the water, but to paddle alongside them until they remember they are the master of their own vessel.
Think about a "rock" you are currently stuck on right now—a problem that has been causing you stress, fear, or frustration. What would it look like to make the Kayaker's Wager today? If you chose to meet that rock as though it had something to teach you, what might that lesson be? What strength might this moment be asking you to build?
Share your thoughts in the thread below. Our community is made up of the very best folks, and we are all paddling alongside you.
My naive “bet” is that for anyone struggling with gambling disorder, this post will be mightily triggering. A trigger warning might be in order.
@PatienceImpatiens I appreciate you flagging this and looking out for folks struggling with gambling, It shows how much you care about this community. Interestingly, as we've looked at the research (see here and below: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/362875663_A_Meta-Analysis_of_the_Efficacy_of_Trigger_Warnings_Content_Warnings_and_Content_Notes) on how to best support people, the data over the last few years strongly shows that trigger warnings tend to increase anticipatory anxiety rather than reduce it. Part of the 'Kayaker's Wager' is learning that we are capable of navigating unexpected bumps without capsizing, so we lean away from warnings in favor of building that internal resilience. Thank you again for your thoughtful catch and for having such a big heart for our members.
Here is the abstract from the meta-analysis (a study of studies). It seems counter-intuitive but makes sense when you read it:
Trigger warnings, content warnings, or content notes are alerts about upcoming content that may contain themes related to past negative experiences. Advocates claim that warnings help people to emotionally prepare for or completely avoid distressing material. Critics argue that warnings both contribute to a culture of avoidance at odds with evidence-based treatment practices and instill fear about upcoming content. Recently, a body of psychological research has begun to investigate these claims empirically. We present the results of a meta-analysis of all empirical studies on the effects of these warnings. Overall, we found that warnings have no effect on affective responses to negative material nor on educational outcomes (i.e., comprehension). However, warnings reliably increase anticipatory affect. Findings on avoidance were mixed, suggesting either that warnings have no effect on engagement with material, or that they increase engagement with negative material under specific circumstances. Limitations and implications for policy and therapeutic practice are discussed.
Interesting. I will state then, personally, n=1, not a robust nor empirical study, that I find the use of gambling and wager terminology to be triggering to me personally. I am not a gambler.
@PatienceImpatiens thanks for this important clarification. Can you share more about what is triggering for you about it? Okay if you don't want to, I'm just trying to understand.
Not meaning to “throw the baby out with the bathwater,” but we’re now talking about 2 different things: 1. Trigger/content warnings, 2. Wager language. That’s ok. My brain can sometimes hold even more than 2 thoughts at a time, miraculous as that might seem!
In regards to trigger/content warnings, they’re still an embedded part of this site. Sharing circle hosts are exhorted to remind people of them before they spew trauma that might lead some people running or slamming their computers shut. So it’s interesting to me to read your stance. In the future, I will not ask people to post content warnings. I will just trust that they will leave when appropriate for them to protect themselves.
In regards to the wager construct, it seems that yes, if one operates with the delusion that instead of crashing into the rock (problem) one might, by softening oneself or concentrating mightily, avoid catastrophic injury when colliding head on with the rock, or learning to quickly swerve or duck, one might lose only one limb instead of life itself, and thereby the rock, if one survives, might offer a lesson of sorts. This is a bit like the theory of Mr. 8 (who I prefer to see as Mr. ♾️) since by virtue of being alive, of course we’re going to run into and have to solve an infinite number of problems, and some of them naturally rise to the surface in importance, since we’re thinking beings who purportedly at least, know a tiny bit about prioritizing.
Forgive me for these are thoughts off the top of my head, and not necessarily what you were getting at with your wager construct.
I will wager, however, that you will have some sort of response, as you’ve obviously been thinking about this for some time.
Thanks for your thoughts here! Just to clarify - with most things here I try to look at the data or research to make decisions. So the no trigger warning point on this post is more grounded in the research that says it can actually increase anxiety rather than remove it. And I think that is a strong and robust finding.
It isn’t uncommon for us as individuals and groups to do things that seem right or are suggested to be helpful only to find out later that they are not too helpful.
The focus then for me is not on my stance or opinion but to instead look at the research or the data. And believe me nobody here has been more wrong than me. I’ve had to eat a lot of humble pie over the years on all the ways I was wrong.
As you said, it is part of the process! And great point on Mr. 8! You can see that I’m trying - hopefully - to deepen this idea. I think it is important, but also difficult to communicate.
@GlenM
I appreciate that you make fact based decisions when it's the facts that are required in certain circumstances. I like that you "use what you got" and that you're not afraid to do the homework. Doing so helps to make decisions that are best for the common good of us all. ✨
I have read what it is that you have, it seems, in regard to trigger warnings. I don't have a "dog in this fight" today, hahah 😊 and I'm not here to fight at all. I have read some of the literature many, many months ago and so I haven't looked any of this up today in an effort to support one side or the other. The literature exists. Studies have been done. It's there. All of it.
In an effort to be of help, something I also read in the literature was that trigger warnings, can in fact, create a situation where since it was announced, it's incredibly compelling to not look away. Announcing a trigger can compel others to read the very things that they were told might not be healthy for them. Kind of like what can be referred to as a "looky loo" or "rubber necking". Not being able to look away from the train wreck. It's simply human nature.
They feel the anticipatory stress just from reading "trigger warning", become invested in reading it and then walk away with the confirmation bias of "yes, that was triggering" and I have to wonder even if it wasn't something that would typically be triggering at all for them, in some instances. Sounds like the basis of another great study, if you ask me. 😊
Additionally, the word "triggering". I guess that word is highly subjective and is being used interchangeably these days for other feelings/emotions as it's become quite the buzz word. Some use the word to show something annoyed them, something was said that they didn't agree with. The word can be used when someone is not getting their way and or is simply frustrated. It creates a scenario where we all have to dig deeper into what that word truly means for others in the moment.
*high fives* 😊 and *hugs* ❤️
@SparkyGizmo great point that words can evolve and mean different things to people. Thanks also for the encouragement on the research and data front! Makes it much easier than getting into an arm wrestling match. Should we do this? Should we not? We just let the data tell us and then no one feels bad about it. Makes being wrong nothing to be ashamed about.
@GlenM
💡 ❤️ 😊
@GlenM
I think it’s great that you try to use data or research to make decisions.
I’ve also been wrong about many things.
As far as your previous question about why betting or wagering is triggering for me personally, I will point to one case (of, sadly, many): my hard working co-worker, who was adored by her colleagues, admitted she was struggling. It turned out her husband had gambled their life savings and their home away. She was faced with raising 4 children on her teacher’s salary because she filed for divorce.
That’s just one example of how gambling has ruined lives.
A quick glance at the research on what’s wrong with gambling will reveal a long list of the ill effects. Here are a few, from google.
Understanding the Harms of Gambling
Gambling can lead to a range of serious issues that affect individuals and their families. Here are some of the key problems associated with gambling:
Financial Consequences
- Debt Accumulation: Many individuals may gamble away their savings, leading to significant financial strain.
- Bankruptcy: Compulsive gambling can result in bankruptcy due to mounting debts.
- Theft or Fraud: Some may resort to illegal activities to fund their gambling habits.
Relationship Issues
- Breakdowns: Gambling can cause significant strain on personal relationships, leading to conflicts and breakdowns.
- Isolation: Individuals may withdraw from family and friends due to shame or secrecy surrounding their gambling behavior.
Mental Health Effects
- Addiction: Gambling can become an addiction, similar to substance abuse, where individuals feel compelled to gamble despite negative outcomes.
- Mental Illness: There is a strong link between gambling disorders and mental health issues such as depression and anxiety.
- Suicidal Thoughts: The stress and despair caused by gambling can lead to suicidal thoughts or actions.
Social Impacts
- Community Costs: Problem gambling can have broader social implications, affecting community resources and increasing the need for social services.
- Intergenerational Effects: The harms of gambling can affect not just the individual but also their family, potentially passing down issues to future generations.
Conclusion
Gambling poses significant risks that can lead to severe financial, relational, and mental health problems. Recognizing these harms is crucial for individuals and families to seek help and support when needed.
7 cups maintains an addiction forum, so it’s important for any person who struggles with any of these problems, that there is help, not only on 7 cups, but also in the wider community.
That’s my public service message for today.
Thank you for allowing me the space to speak.
@GlenM
we find even with all our trauma that trigger warning do not really help us as anything can be a trigger so for us to read things then get trigger is just telling us were we need to work on healing the rock in the river for us is to be faced and for us to over come it
so even with the words used and us having a gambling addiction in past we was not bothered by use of words here at all truth is we found it made us want to read what you said
@GlenM taking the chance and going with the flow does sound helpful to me! We never know when an opportunity can turn golden
@SoulfullyAButterfly I love when common wisdom is actually common wisdom! Going with the flow is one of those statements that captures it. I think your point is one of the harder things for us to get our mind around. I, for one, struggle when I'm facing a problem to see it as a hidden opportunity despite 100s to 1000s of problems being ultimately helpful for me. This way of looking at it helped me better see that If I take this approach then there isn't really any downside and potentially a lot of benefit to me seeing it through this lens. Like I don't have to brace against or worry about problems too much - instead, I can just face them and solve them without the distraction of worry or fear - because that approach is the most optimal approach I can take.
@GlenM
The Kayaker's Wager is the kind of tool that can shift people out of feeling victimized by their circumstances, and instead put them into a mindset of proactiveness where they are willing to fight for themselves. This is very close to how I view the universe. Even if life is just random, I choose to put my intentions out there. Even if my bet falls through or things don't work out the way I hoped, I’ve still put in the effort. Because of that effort and that willingness to try, I am stronger for every single bet I make (antifragile, baby!).
Nothing is meaningless cruelty, despite how it might feel, and if you can resist defeating yourself before you even get through the door, you'll be in a better mental position to deal with challenges that will come to you, unfortunately, regardless. The good and comforting thing is, as a community, we have each other to help make sense of it all and do what we do best: paddle together. Thanks for offering this new way of thinking as we're facing life on the river!
@Heather225 thank you for these comments H! I love the point about being willing to fight for ourselves. It suggests that we have to also be active and that the frame we put on things (like the frame around a picture) is an active process. We can bring a framework or we can by default accept the frame that is given to us. Thank you for sharing this point!
@Heather225
My therapist said why do you always hope hope this might happen or that might not happen, you must try to see and if it doesn't work try a different way. It's normal that what you try might not be what you hoped it to be but that must stop you as only in trying we will know the results.
@GlenM
I've placed a Courage Star to place once a week, a Star to guide me in facing my uncomfortable space, my unresolved fears that came with age but that I didn't have in youth, most of them is what makes you more Independent and Free to expand your world... even if I've learnt the eco, physical and mindful value in walking in my surroundings I must embrace also other means to reach what my walk is can't in the great distances of this world... or that even with walk it needs great balance and courage like the Mountain Hikes.
My Courageous Star that I once had but lost or never discovered:
- the freedom to Bike
- the freedom to drive a car
- the courage to swim in the lake and sea
- the freedom to hike with security in any mountain path even at night (with the right precautions)
- the courage to be and speak out loud in my true self with no shame
_ the freedom to converse with strangers I meet down the street
@The24hrClimber what a beautiful list of courageous activities! Great work! Many of those things can indeed be anxiety provoking. Any other recommendations or techniques you use to feel courageous when you don't?
@GlenM
I’ve been watching video on soft etiquette and what was truly interesting to learn was that “nobody cares how intelligent you are in small talk - small talk is about being interested not interesting.”
As for ideas of rationalism it comes with a territory - do some people struggle with tough love or are we needing comforting in a particular moment.
I think there is no such thing as healthy communication if there is no awareness of timing. But when you have the emotional expressions that invites connection. To connect with someone completely rational will be extremely difficult.
Well said Jas! Your comment reminds me of the maya angelou quote that people don’t remember what you know but how you make them feel.
It sounds also like you are suggesting a sort of process or assessment before bringing this idea up? Like hey is this person in a good spot right now? Is comforting more beneficial? Or am I reading you wrong here?
I think practical recommendations are great!
@GlenM
Maya Angelou - fascinating lady! She had powerful poems! Good shout out, Glen!
You summarise well Glen :)
@JasGab200519970 I’ve learned from the best on here!
@GlenM and the greatest thing about life on the river is we never know what's waiting just beyond the river bend💖
I love this song :)
@The24hrClimber me too!
@Tinywhisper11 so true! we never know and to trust even though we are uncertain seems to be key. great movie!
@GlenM
I think this is a powerful way to look at the choices we make in life. A shift in perspective can significantly change the emotional weight of what we’re going through. Carrying the belief that hardships are random or pointless is a heavy burden. I would rather believe that things are working in my favour, even when it absolutely does not look like it.
It reminds me of a quote by Noam Chomsky: “We have two choices. We can be pessimistic, give up, and help ensure that the worst will happen. Or we can be optimistic, grasp the opportunities that surely exist, and maybe help make the world a better place. Not much of a choice.” It captures this idea well.
I think the reason this approach works is because when things feel meaningful, it becomes easier to keep doing the work and take the next step. It is incredibly hard to keep rowing in the middle of a storm when you are overwhelmed by the fact that it is happening at all.
It also brings me back to something you once shared, that life is a marathon, not a sprint. Sometimes the roadblocks we face are exactly what force the pacing we need to finish well.
One thing I would add is this. You can believe that everything is working for you, not against you, and still feel completely devastated by how it is unfolding. Both can exist at the same time. You are allowed to feel what you feel, but those feelings do not have to stop you from taking thoughtful, proactive action in the face of challenges.
@Hope love these reflections and your last paragraph. A very good point that we can feel and need to feel our feelings and also move forward. Thanks for also sharing the Chomsky quote. I hadn't heard that one!
Hi everyone! 😊 ❤️
I guess for me today, I'm compelled to speak my truth. It doesn't have to mean that it's others, at all. I get it, no one deposited the truth scrolls with me and no one should ever subjugate their thoughts or feelings for mine.
With "woke culture" (not my words/phrase), it does remind us that there is a bit of sensitivity that we should have towards others. The problem seems to be when the pendulum swings too far and then people can no longer use words at all to communicate.
Words from the oxford English dictionary or Websters are fuel for anger or contempt. It becomes a game of semantics with the original meaning being totally lost because everyone wants to sit around and argue about verbiage and word usage.
One could always consider the "intentionality" of the message and not try to take things out of context. Nothing here was said to hurt others. Simply to explain a concept. It was designed to be of help.
Hey, if someone calls your mom a dirty name or runs over your kitten with a lawn mower, sure, get mad and real mad. Those are areas that might be more deserving of venom and vitriol.
We're better than this, I know we are!
*high fives* 😊 and *hugs* ❤️
@SparkyGizmo
I feel like this is an important message.
I think the intent of the original message was a mental shift, as it were.
I know this is difficult for some.
Also, I have to applaud the idea of educating the public using a metaphor: in this case the metaphor of a kayaker going down a river.
Props to Glen Moriarty for doing that.
Love and Courage,
Calm Rosebud 🕊️🌹
@CalmRosebud
❤️❤️❤️
Thanks Calm!
@SparkyGizmo thanks for this clarification. I think I might be missing something. The above dialog on trigger warnings and use of the word bet or wager seems to be good to me. We can tolerate different opinions and points of view! Are there folks more irritated about the above than I realize?
@GlenM
Seems to be. I'm not bothered by the verbiage.
*high fives* 😊 and *hugs* ❤️
I appreciate your open-mindedness about allowing/accepting “listening to” if you will, different viewpoints. Once I got through my initial distress, I think I could understand better that you are presenting “another way” to look at this thing we call life. And, I’m all for people grappling with concepts that may be difficult to put into words. Here for the process! Three cheers for cups! Keep on thinking!!!!!!
@PatienceImpatiens
❤️❤️❤️
@GlenM
Linking the addiction support forum on 7 cups for anyone who may be triggered by this post.
https://www.7cups.com/forum/addiction/
@GlenM
What do you think of the Kayaker’s Wager or Bet idea?
you just gave a name to what we believe even as a child we have had the belief that every thing we go through has lessons within them to be scared is normal but to face the the chaos even within the rocks is to have a mindset of going on even when you going into the deep unknown
for us the big thing keeps us going in our spiritual beliefs as we belive we never alone in this iife we hsd to face so much trauma in our life but we still going along the rive of life
we believe one mindset matters a lot to see blessing even tiny ones within the worst times helps us a lot it why we like what teaching you been doing
I’m very glad to hear that the name is meaningful in captures something that you’ve already mastered! I am right there with you continuing on the river of life and my spiritual beliefs helped me quite a bit too!
